Russia risks speed up automakers’ switch from palladium to platinum, WPIC says

LONDON, May 16 (Reuters) – Automakers are accelerating efforts to use less palladium and more platinum due to worries over palladium supply from Russia, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) said on Monday, predicting a large surplus in the platinum market this year.

Automakers were already shifting to platinum, which is cheaper than palladium, to save money, but a faster transition would increase platinum demand and could lift prices while having the opposite effect on palladium. ,

Russia accounts for around 25-30% of the world’s supply of palladium and around 8-10% of its platinum.

There is no sign that Russian exports have been curtailed by sanctions on the country since it sent troops into Ukraine in February but with the war dragging on, more companies may boycott Russian metal and governments could impose restrictions.

“The substitution effort has gone up hugely,” said Trevor Raymond, the WPIC’s head of research. “The amount of savings an automaker can make are massive. What’s been added on top of that is concerns about availability (of palladium).”

At around $950 an ounce, platinum costs around half as much as palladium. Automakers use around 2.5-3 million ounces of platinum each year and around 8.5 million ounces of palladium.

In its latest quarterly report, the WPIC said the roughly 8 million ounce a year platinum market would be oversupplied by 627,000 ounces this year following a surplus of 1.13 million ounces in 2021.

In March, it forecast a surplus for 2022 of 652,000 ounces.

During the January-March quarter, platinum demand fell 26%year-on-year and supply fell 13%, leaving the market oversupplied by 167,000 ounces, the WPIC said.

It said that for the full year, supply would be 5% less than in 2021 and demand would be 2% greater, with auto industry demand rising 16% due to an increase in light duty vehicle production, higher loadings per vehicle to meet tighter emissions regulation and substitution from palladium.

Following are supply and demand numbers and comparisons.

The roughly 8 million ounce a year platinum market is set for a second year of oversupply in 2022, according to the World Platinum Investment Council.
The roughly 8 million ounce a year platinum market is set for a second year of oversupply in 2022, according to the World Platinum Investment Council.

ANNUAL PLATINUM SUPPLY/DEMAND (‘000 oz)*

2021
2022f
2022f/2021 % change
SUPPLY
Refined Production
6,297
5,872
-7%
Producer Inventory +/-
-93
0
-100%
Recycling
1,953
1,909
-2%
TOTAL SUPPLY
8,156
7,781
-5%
DEMAND
Automotive
2,643
3,055
16%
Jewellery
1,923
1,886
-2%
Industrial
2,508
2,109
-16%
– of which chemical
688
613
-11%
– Petroleum
172
193
12%
– Electrical
135
127
-6%
– Glass
715
331
-54%
– Medical
244
257
5%
– Other
555
588
6%
Investment
-45
104
-331%
– Bars, Coins
332
254
-23%
– ETF Holdings
-238
-50
-79%
– Exchange Stocks
-139
-100
-28%
TOTAL DEMAND
7,029
7,155
2%
MARKET BALANCE
1,128
627
-44%
Above Ground Stocks
3,752
4,379
17%

QUARTERLY PLATINUM SUPPLY/DEMAND (‘000 oz)*

Q1 2021
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q1/Q1 % change
SUPPLY
Refined Production
1,465
1,695
1,279
-13%
Producer Inventory +/-
-29
-39
0
-100%
Recycling
518
453
415
-20%
TOTAL SUPPLY
1,953
2,109
1,695
-13%
DEMAND
Automotive
724
680
725
0%
Jewellery
479
499
437
-9%
Industrial
707
624
533
-25%
– of which chemical
119
200
111
-7%
– Petroleum
37
57
44
21%
– Electrical
33
32
30
-9%
– Glass
318
121
138
-56%
– Medical
57
67
65
15%
– Other
143
147
144
0%
Investment
159
-108
-167
-205%
– Bars, Coins
21
95
60
192%
– ETF Holdings
105
-155
-169
-261%
– Exchange Stocks
33
-48
-58
-273%
TOTAL DEMAND
2,069
1,695
1,528
-26%
MARKET BALANCE
-116
413
167
-244%

* Source: World Platinum Investment Council, Platinum Quarterly Q1 2022

Reporting by Peter Hobson; Editing by Kirsten Donovan