Ford raises profit outlook for 2026 despite nagging aluminum supply costs

Summary

  • Ford expects to receive $1.3 billion tariff refund after Supreme Court ruling
  • Automaker raises annual EBIT guidance by $500 million
  • Company recorded net profit of $2.5 billion for the quarter

DETROIT, (Reuters) – Ford Motor lifted its annual guidance on Wednesday ​by $500 million, aided by significant tariff refunds, but said it still faces rising materials costs as it ‌works to source aluminum for its lucrative F-150 pickup trucks.

A U.S. Supreme Court ruling in February that struck down some of the Trump administration’s tariffs provided $1.3 billion in relief to Ford. The company booked a paper gain on that expected refund in the first quarter, bolstering its bottom line, while ​acknowledging uncertainty around how quickly it will be reimbursed by the government.

Ford raised guidance by less than that refund ​amount because the company now faces higher-than-expected tariff costs for the year. Those added expenses come ⁠especially on raw materials like aluminum, after Ford’s major U.S. supplier Novelis suffered two large fires in 2025.

Production at the affected part ​of the New York plant is expected to resume between May and September of this year, the automaker has said. Novelis ​said it expects production to resume late in the second quarter.

Ford raised its guidance to $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion in projected earnings before interest and taxes for the year, from a previous $8 billion to $10 billion. Its shares decreased less than 1% in after-market trading.

The automaker said it will face net ​tariff costs of $1 billion for the year, but declined to disclose its gross tariff hit.

Michigan-based Ford recorded adjusted earnings per share ​of 66 cents for the first quarter, far surpassing analysts’ expectations of 19 cents, supported by the tariff refund. Adjusted earnings before interest ‌and taxes ⁠were $3.5 billion for the three-month period, and revenue was $43.3 billion.

Ford recorded a net profit of $2.5 billion for the quarter.

Ford's US EV sales over the years
Ford’s US EV sales over the years

F-150 PRODUCTION ESTIMATED TO HAVE FALLEN

Inventory of the F-150 has dropped 38% in April over the prior year, according to data from Catalyst IQ, largely as a result of the Novelis fires.

The F-150 has been the best-selling vehicle in America for more than 40 years, and ​is a major profit driver for ​Ford. Any disruptions to ⁠its output represent a significant financial hit for the automaker.

F-Series production is now estimated to have fallen 12% year-over-year in the first quarter as of mid-April, a steeper drop than expected, said ​JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman, citing data from S&P Global Mobility.

“Ford may be having a more difficult ​time recovering from ⁠the Novelis fire than was earlier expected,” Brinkman said in the analyst note.

Ford’s total vehicle sales decreased 9% in the first quarter, with lower EV and hybrid demand accounting for roughly half of the drop.

Cross-town rival General Motors on Tuesday reported a 22% rise ⁠in first-quarter ​core profit and lifted its full-year earnings forecast, buoyed by a resilient U.S. ​car market and an expected tariff refund of $500 million.

Ford’s stock has risen about 20% over the last 12 months, while GM’s has risen more than 60%.

Reporting by Nora Eckert in Detroit; Additional reporting by Nathan Gomes in Bengaluru; Editing by Nia Williams